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The New York real estate industry exuded upbeat energy not only about returning to the newly restored art deco Waldorf Astoria hotel for its biggest night of the year. Property professionals are also feeling positive about the prospects in 2026 for an office market that has been steadily building momentum.
The trade group Real Estate Board of New York held its 130th annual confab Thursday night, and attendees were willing to discuss challenges facing the city, particularly housing. But some of those mingling at the gathering linked the reopening of the historic hotel to New York’s larger comeback in the wake of the pandemic, particularly added office demand.
Returning to the Waldorf, said Tom Bow, executive vice president of commercial leasing for The Durst Organization, “feels like business as usual.”
The black-tie-optional gala brought together 1,100-plus industry, government and other attendees to honor eight people, including GFP Real Estate Chairman Jeff Gural, one of the owners of the restored Flatiron Building.
While New York Gov. Kathy Hochul and some city deputy mayors and commissioners were present, newly sworn-in Mayor Zohran Mamdani was absent; past mayors more often than not have been known to appear.
But Mamdani had proposed broad rent stabilization and some tax hikes during the campaign before he took office Jan. 1, positions that sparked concern among the local real estate industry. Mamdani’s press team didn’t immediately respond to a CoStar News request seeking comment on why he didn’t attend.
Even with the mayor's missed opportunity for a little bridge building, James Whelan, REBNY’s president, said he wasn’t concerned by Mamdani’s absence: “His team was here. He’s got a lot to do. There’s always next year. … The biggest priority, we shared it with the mayor, is the housing situation. We need to create more housing in this town.”
While Mamdani has taken some steps such as addressing whether some city-owned property can be turned into housing, Whelan said the “one area of disagreement” the industry has with his administration centers on the pitch to freeze rent on about 1 million rent-stabilized apartments for four years.
“Rent-stabilized and rent-control housing is dead,” Bob Knakal, who has been ranked over the years as among the biggest sellers of commercial real estate in New York, told CoStar News. “You may as well just consider those million apartments as not even existing. … We don’t know if people who are getting protected under rent control and rent stabilization even deserve to be. ... We have to do something with the nonstabilized and noncontrolled housing, and the best way to do that is by building more new buildings.”
Still, against any uncertainty about how the real estate industry’s dance will go with the new mayor, professionals overall said their outlook on the market is positive.
“I’m very optimistic about 2026,” Knakal said, adding Manhattan last year had 691 buildings sold, which he said was a 2.5% turnover rate. “We have been at or below trend turnover for seven years in a row. That’s never happened before. There is pent-up demand to sell, and that the market is poised for a huge run-up in activity and in property value."
He added that "Values are too low. Turnover is too low. It has to change. It will change. I think 2026 is going to be the beginning of that. … Every property type is performing differently, but in our largest sectors, which are our apartment buildings and office buildings, values have been so depressed that they have nowhere to go but up.”
James Nelson, New York-based head of U.S. investment sales at real estate services firm Avison Young, said 2025 was an “incredible” year for dealmaking in both New York and across the country.
“What was really driving that was office here in New York City,” he said in an interview, adding almost half of the investment sales dollar volume in the city last year came from office properties. “When there’s more office demand, you have more demand for apartments, more demand for retail.”
GFP’s Gural said his company is “in good shape” when it comes to office leasing, adding, “Most of our buildings are full.” The property owner also is undertaking some office-to-residential conversions.
“Right now, business is fine, but you know, that could change any time,” he said. “I’d like to see interest rates lower.”
Bow at Durst, whose portfolio includes One World Trade Center in lower Manhattan, described 2025 as “the turning point” when it comes to office leasing in the city.
“The market will continue to improve and go up,” he said. “I don’t see anything turning it back. I see the high end of the market … continuing to perform very well.”
As supply for high-end office stock tightens, rent is also headed up, Bow said, adding that Durst's office tower at 825 Third Ave. has increased rents to $110 a foot at the top of the renovated building.
Top-dollar office leases jumped to record highs last year in Manhattan, a study by real estate services firm JLL found. New York was shown to have closed 2025 with its best office leasing volume since at least 2019.
Office “is coming back,” said former Silverstein CEO Marty Burger, who recently started a venture with L&L Holding Co. Chairman and CEO David Levinson to pursue development, buying and financing opportunities.
“It’s strong in New York. There’s been a huge surge in office leasing. Even the B buildings are getting used to that. It’s the obsolete buildings that need to be converted that just don’t lend themselves to be office buildings. And of course, there’s always a need for residential housing.”
Leslie Harwood, a managing director at Newmark, described “the pulse of the market” in New York as “very exciting right now, because the flight to quality is like something we’ve never seen.”
She added that “if you’re looking for Class A space in New York, it’s very difficult to find. As the Class A space is being eaten up … so B-plus or A-minus spaces are now renting as well. And as the footprint expands, the market gets stronger.”
Selling, managing, or repositioning a commercial property is rarely straightforward—especially in uncertain markets where incomplete information can lead to costly mistakes. Pricing errors, overlooked risks, and delayed decisions often prevent owners from realizing full value.
Bob Knakal, Chairman and CEO of BKREA, helps property owners, developers, and investors make informed, confident real estate decisions backed by discipline, data, and decades of experience. Through accurate valuations, early risk identification, and hands-on advisory, he consistently helps clients protect and maximize asset value while avoiding common pitfalls.
After graduating from the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania, Bob began his real estate career in 1984 at CB Richard Ellis. In 1988, he co-founded Massey Knakal Realty Services, pioneering the territory system that reshaped NYC investment sales. Following the firm’s $100 million sale to Cushman & Wakefield in 2014, Bob returned to entrepreneurship in 2024, founding BKREA as the culmination of his career and philosophy: discipline, specialization, and client-first decision-making.
Bob combines hands-on experience, proprietary data, and a problem-solving advisory model, helping clients make decisions based on facts—not assumptions or market hype.
No. BKREA advises owners long before a sale, offering guidance on asset positioning, redevelopment strategies, and risk management to maximize long-term value.
BKREA is especially strong in development sites, redevelopment opportunities, and user properties, while also advising long-term owners on asset repositioning.
Valuations are grounded in over 40 years of transaction data, detailed market analysis, and careful documentation—never optimism or unsupported pricing.
Bob believes that sustained success comes from disciplined, repeatable actions over time. As he often says, “Consistency beats intensity.”
The first issue of RENT Magazine for 2026 recognizes Selling Buildings as a Best of 2025 Awards winner, cementing its position as a must-read commercial real estate book. Written by legendary NYC broker Bob Knakal and top industry coach Rod Santomassimo, this book distills decades of real-world experience into a practical, results-driven guide for brokers and investors looking to win at the highest level.
Selling Buildings goes beyond transactions. It delivers proven strategies for positioning assets, creating competitive bidding environments, and consistently achieving premium pricing in today’s commercial real estate market.
Selling Buildings is designed for commercial real estate brokers, investors, and professionals who want to sell assets more effectively, secure exclusives, and consistently achieve top-of-market pricing.
While the authors bring deep NYC expertise, the strategies are market-agnostic and applicable to commercial real estate professionals nationwide.
Unlike theory-heavy books, Selling Buildings focuses on execution—real processes, real deal structures, and real tactics proven in live transactions.
Yes. A core focus of the book is how to win exclusive assignments through positioning, messaging, and client trust.
Absolutely. Investors gain insight into how top brokers think, how deals are positioned, and how to evaluate sales strategies that maximize exit value.
The book was recognized for its practical impact, industry relevance, and ability to deliver measurable results in commercial real estate sales.
The Knakal Land Index segments sales into five property categories: residential rental, residential condominium, office, hotel, and specialty uses including education and healthcare. By separating transactions by asset class, the index provides a clearer view of how pricing behaves across different property types, eliminating distortions caused by blended averages.
"BKREA operates in the information and relationship business," said Bob Knakal, Chairman and CEO of BKREA. "When people have better information, they make better decisions. This index gives the market a factual baseline that has never existed before at this scale."
The study focuses on Manhattan's most competitive redevelopment corridor, defined as south of 96th Street on the East Side and south of 110th Street on the West Side. This geography represents the highest-density development zone in the city, where land values reflect entitlement complexity, zoning strategy, and long-term planning decisions. It is also the area where Manhattan's skyline continues to evolve most dramatically.
Using proprietary AI-driven models, BKREA compares historical land value trends against a wide range of macroeconomic indicators. This analysis identifies which variables have historically influenced pricing direction and the magnitude of market shifts across multiple real estate cycles. The result is a data-backed framework designed to help investors, developers, and lenders better understand risk, timing, and opportunity in New York City development markets.
The Knakal Land Index spans four decades of market activity, capturing periods of expansion, recession, and structural change. By applying artificial intelligence to one of the largest land datasets in the country, BKREA provides forward-looking insights grounded in historical performance.
The Knakal Land Index segments transactions into five property categories—residential rental, residential condo, office, hotel, and miscellaneous uses such as education and healthcare—allowing investors to see how land pricing behaves differently by use. This approach avoids the pitfalls of blended averages that often obscure meaningful market signals.
“We view ourselves as being in the information and relationship business,” said Bob Knakal, Chairman and CEO of BKREA. “When people have better information, they make better decisions. This index gives the market a factual baseline that simply hasn’t existed before.”
The index focuses on prime Manhattan geography, defined as south of 96th Street on the East Side and south of 110th Street on the West Side. This corridor represents the most competitive redevelopment zone in the city, where pricing reflects long-term density strategies and high-stakes entitlement decisions. It is also where Manhattan’s skyline continues to evolve most dramatically.
Using proprietary AI models, BKREA compares land value trends against a wide range of macroeconomic indicators to determine which variables have historically been most predictive of future market direction and the potential magnitude of change. This framework is designed to make the data actionable rather than purely historical.
Knakal has applied the same methodology since 1984, allowing for consistent comparisons across multiple market cycles. This long-term continuity positions the index as a reference point for investors, developers, and lenders looking to move beyond short-term headlines.
In Manhattan, development sites rarely appear as vacant land. Opportunities typically emerge through the acquisition and repositioning of older, underutilized buildings. Knakal is widely recognized as one of New York City’s top development site brokers for his ability to identify hidden density and maximize value through zoning and entitlement strategies. This makes the dataset relevant not only to developers, but also to lenders, investors, and property owners evaluating redevelopment potential.
A summary of the index’s findings appears in Knakal’s newly released “Ultimate Guide to Selling a Development Site for the Highest Possible Price,” a 340-page coffee table book published by BKREA. The book includes a comprehensive overview of Manhattan land sales history, detailed index findings, over 200 development site case studies with deal write-ups and client testimonials, before-and-after visuals showing how New York City has evolved, and a recap of Knakal’s two REBNY Most Ingenious Deal of the Year Awards.
Industry reaction has been strong. Robert Lobel, President of Bellrock Development, called the index “an old-school piece of research that lets the market go under the hood,” noting that it is rare to see four decades of structured data presented at this level of depth. Knakal added that the research is not available anywhere else and is intended to give BKREA clients a measurable advantage.
BK Real Estate Advisors is a New York City investment sales brokerage focused on development, redevelopment, and user buildings. Owned by Bob Knakal, the firm reports that Knakal has sold more than 2,388 NYC properties totaling approximately $24 billion in transaction volume.
Manhattan land is not a normal market. Scarcity drives the pricing and competition drives the pace. Developers often “find land” by targeting older, underutilized buildings that later become development sites.
BK Real Estate Advisors (BKREA) announced the Knakal Land Index, a 41-year study of Manhattan land sales dating back to 1984.
It spans 41 years of Manhattan land sales, segments transactions by property type, and compares land value swings against macroeconomic factors using proprietary AI models.
Bob Knakal, Chairman and CEO of BKREA, said the firm views itself as being in the “information and relationship business,” and that informed decisions lead to better outcomes.
The Knakal Land Index focuses on prime Manhattan, defined as:
This is the corridor where redevelopment competition is most intense, and pricing tends to reflect high-stakes density bets.
With Manhattan’s skyline constantly changing, the index tracks the land sales market where developers’ decisions shape what gets built next.
The dataset covers 2,444 sale transactions, disaggregated into five property-type categories:
This breakdown is a key point. Land pricing does not behave identically across uses, and lumping everything into one blended “Manhattan land” number can flatten what investors actually need to understand.
The index compares land value fluctuations against a wide array of macroeconomic factors using proprietary AI models to identify which factor, or combination of factors, has been most predictive of future changes in direction and the potential magnitude of those changes.
That framework is designed to make the dataset usable, not just historical.
Knakal has used an identical methodology for calculating the data since 1984.
That consistency supports cleaner comparisons across cycles without shifting the rules midstream.
If the methodology truly stays consistent, it can become a baseline reference that market participants return to instead of reacting to short-term headlines.
Manhattan doesn’t create land in the traditional sense. New development opportunity often comes from demolishing older, underutilized properties to make way for new construction, so the best sites are not always obvious.
In other words, the “land market” can show up inside what looks like a building trade.
Knakal is widely recognized as a top development site broker in New York City, in part for his ability to spot overlooked opportunities and maximize site value by increasing buildable density through multiple mechanisms.
That’s why a land sales dataset is relevant beyond developers. It can inform how lenders, investors, and owners think about redevelopment optionality and the pricing of density.
A summary of the index’s findings appears in Knakal’s Ultimate Guide to Selling a Development Site for the Highest Possible Price, a 340-page coffee table book published by BKREA.
The book includes:
Robert Lobel, president of Bellrock Development, called the index an “old-school piece of research” that lets the market “go under the hood,” and said it’s rare to see four decades of research with this level of depth.
Knakal also said the research is not available anywhere else and is intended to give BKREA clients a significant advantage.
BKREA is a New York City investment sales brokerage focused on development, redevelopment, and user buildings and is owned by Bob Knakal. The firm states Knakal has sold more than 2,388 NYC properties with an approximate market value of $24 billion.
BKREA’s Knakal Land Index compiles 41 years of prime Manhattan land sales into a dataset segmented by property type and paired with a macro-factor analysis framework. The value is simple: it gives the market a clearer factual baseline for how Manhattan land pricing has behaved across cycles.
They won’t top out until the end of the decade, but iconic new Manhattan office towers are finally going vertical.
And no wonder: Asking rents for beautiful, technologically advanced office space in prime locations are soaring toward $200 per foot.
Meanwhile, the success of JPMorgan Chase’s glamorous new headquarters at 270 Park Ave. is serving as proof of concept for ambitious new skyline stunners.
“It is creating a buzz about how transformative new construction is to the city,” said David Goldstein of Savills. “The new construction pipeline is definitely taking shape and the first out of the ground will have pricing and timing advantage.”
One of the earliest will be BXP’s 343 Madison Ave., designed by KPF, with 937,000 square feet. It has a letter of intent with C.V. Starr for a third of the 46-story tower, which won’t be delivered until 2029.
Not to be outdone, Scott Rechler’s RXR and TF Cornerstone are talking to anchor office tenants for their jumbo 2.9 million-square-foot tower at 175 Park Ave. Designed by Skidmore, Owings & Merrill, it would rise 1,575 feet above Grand Central Terminal and include a Hyatt hotel and transit improvements.
Vornado and Rudin are also in the game. They just got city approval to build a new 1.7 million-square-foot tower at 350 Park Ave. — with Citadel as partner and a 850,000-square-foot anchor space.
And Silverstein Properties is closing in on a deal with American Express to move from Brookfield Place to a new 2 World Trade Center, now likely to be around 2 million square feet.
In a move from Rockefeller Center, Deloitte has agreed to lease 700,000 square feet of Related’s 1.1 million-square-foot 70 Hudson Yards that is now under construction.
Nearby, BXP and Joseph Moinian are inching closer to getting 3 Hudson Blvd. out of the ground.
The reset in asking rents is also drawing investors into the market, spurring a slew of sales.
“Investors are back on the hunt for offices that were labeled as `kryptonite’ for a fair while.”
- David Goldstein of Savills
One Vanderbilt’s developer, SL Green, swooped in to pay $136 million for the 800,000-square-foot development site at 346 Madison, where buildings will need to be demolished to kick off construction.
It’s a bargain compared to the entirely vacant 405-417 Park Ave. blockfront between East 54th and 55th streets being marketed by Newmark — with pricing around $500 million — for a potential tower of 700,000 square feet.
Bob Knakal of BKREA is marketing dozens of land sites in Manhattan as well as 17 air rights transfers.
While many of those sites will become condos, some may become offices.
Although 30 million square feet worth of new towers were built over the last decade, it’s nearly all leased up. Jonathan Mazur of Newmark predicts 10 million square feet will rise by 2032 to meet demand — followed by more during that decade.
Some developers are seeking buildings with good bones that can be rehabbed faster than ground-up construction.
“Investors are back on the hunt for offices that were labeled as `kryptonite’ for a fair while,” Goldstein said.
A lease for the entire Chrysler Building is still up for grabs through Savills for landowner Cooper Union. SL Green would like to take charge of that partially vacant iconic Art Deco tower, but other operators are also in the mix.
Marketed by Eastdil, the $1.08 billion transfer of the IBM Building at 590 Madison Ave. to RXR at the end of the summer provided a boost to the tower sales market. Meanwhile, Norges Bank Investment Management pulled its cash from the ground up 343 Madison Ave. and pivoted to buy 1177 Sixth Ave. with Beacon for $572.29 million. It was marketed by Eastdil for Silverstein Properties and CalSTRS (which paid $1 billion in 2007). The largest tenant is the global law firm HFS Kramer.
“Those sales demonstrated there is institutional demand for New York City offices and reshaped the way people were thinking in a constructive and positive way,” said Will Silverman of Eastdil. “It was an institutional blessing.”
The new pricing also means that lenders, who took control of many assets during the nadir of the pandemic, are finally ready to sell. Other investors are selling to pay down existing debt, or to beef up cash reserves to redeploy into new projects.
For instance, Tishman Speyer is selling the lower 22 stories of CitySpire at 150 W. 56th St. with 370,000 square feet of offices.
“We are through the bottom and pricing is increasing but it is still down 30% to 40% from the peak,” said Andrew Scandalios of JLL.
Driven by a debt of $262.5 million, Rockwood and lender MetLife are trying to sell 2 Grand Central at 140 E. 45th St. They’re looking for north of $270 million with brokerage Eastdil — a discount from the $401 million paid in 2011.
“Sales demonstrated there is institutional demand for New York City offices and reshaped the way people were thinking in a constructive and positive way.”
- Will Silverman of Eastdil
The debt on the vacant 137,000-square-foot 90 Fifth Ave. is also for sale through Newmark.
Debt is one reason Charles Cohen sold the 382,500-square-foot office tower at 623 Fifth Ave. to Vornado for $218 million. It’s 75% vacant and Vornado will pour millions into the building to capture tenants who want to move in 2027.
BKREA and Rudder Property Group are selling the fully furnished former Core Club condo at 65 E. 55th St. for RFR for $40 million.
Across the street, Park Avenue Tower at 65 E. 55th St., marketed by Eastdil for Blackstone, is being sold to SL Green for $730 million.
RFR sold the vacant offices at 522 Fifth Ave. to Amazon earlier this year for $340 million plus another $85 million for its retail space.
“It’s a strong example of the lack of supply of big-block space,” RFR’s Gaby Rosen said. “They wanted to move from older, under amenitized properties.”
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Zoning plan opened floodgates for landmark buildings, brokers say
Before City of Yes, Bob Knakal would rarely work on air rights deals. When he did, it was one at a time. Now the chairman and CEO of BK Real Estate Advisors has 17 in the works.
Mayor Adams’ marquee rezoning plan, passed in December, has made these types of deals much easier, thanks to new flexibility around air rights, also called transferable development rights.
Commercial brokers say developers are seizing the opportunity — not just in the low-slung outer borough neighborhoods that were the focus of City of Yes, but in the priciest and densest parts of Manhattan.
“We have seen a definite uptick in clients interested in these transactions,” said James Power, an attorney and head of land use at Herbert Smith Freehills Kramer. What once had been a rare inquiry has become a regular conversation.
Landmarked buildings have been able to sell leftover development rights to adjacent lots since the 1960s. These buildings can’t be demolished, and most of them aren’t going to be built higher. Selling the floor area rights they’re entitled to through zoning can help those owners raise cash for repairs and maintenance.
But in the past half century, only 15 such deals have closed, according to the Department of Planning. Landmarked buildings could only transfer their rights to adjacent lots, which meant few potential buyers. Any deal also required a lengthy process to get approval from the city.
The City of Yes plan significantly expanded which lots could receive the rights. Landmarked buildings can now transfer development rights to lots on the same block, across the street or at the next intersection.
“You’re much more likely to transact if you have 52 potential buyers than if you have two,” Knakal said.
For brokers and lawyers, interest in air rights deals has swelled. Most of the deals brokers anticipate are in Manhattan, which has a high concentration of landmarked buildings. There are 1220 landmarked buildings and sites in the borough, according to the Landmarks Preservation Commission, compared to just 294 in Brooklyn with the second-highest concentration. Air rights typically sell for about half of what the land is worth, Knakal said, meaning that in areas where land values are lower, owners may not feel it worth the trouble to sell.
The City of Yes plan loosened zoning regulations in other ways, such as raising height limits in some parts of the city. Those changes have also encouraged owners to seek out air rights deals, Power said, because they are now permitted to build higher.
Part of the motivation behind the policy changes was to help owners of landmark buildings raise money to maintain them.
“Those landmarks can’t do anything with those air rights,” said Wilson Parry, CEO and co-founder at Property Scout. “It’s like found money for them.”
Another goal of making air rights transfers easier was to encourage housing density and development, as the mayor aims to build a moonshot 500,000 new units by 2032. The City of Yes plan overall is expected to create about 82,000 of those.
Brokers and lawyers said many deals are in the works, but none have closed. It may take some time for developers to seize upon the new rules and for the owners of landmarked buildings to learn about their new opportunities.
“A lot of times you don’t need the development rights until you’re in the process of building,” said Michael Smith, an attorney and partner at Herrick Feinstein. “You may be having conversations, you may be entering into contracts, but it hasn’t hit city records.”
The presence of retail leases and residential tenants can also hold up development, which in turn kicks air rights deals down the timeline. And there are still limitations on what you can build; receiving sites can only increase their density by 20 percent.
“The owners of landmarked buildings are anxious to sell and the developers are anxious to buy,” Power said. “It’s a matter of finding the right deal, the right time and the right business terms.”
Still, the process is much more streamlined than it once was. Although the city still needs to approve any transfers, there is no longer a need for a special permit and a lengthy process with the Landmarks Preservation Commission. Removing some of that uncertainty from the process has made it more attractive for both sides.
“Theoretically, City of Yes has definitely taken a good step forward for landmarks,” said Brian Strout, president and broker at TRIZ Advisory. ”Now it’s rolling up your sleeves to work through some of the practical realities.”
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BKREA Client Holiday Party
The Knakal Map Room was meticulously created through 220 hours of fieldwork during the pandemic, ensuring that BKREA has the most up-to-date pipeline of development projects. This pipeline, like all BKREA development site data sets, is disaggregated into five buckets: 1) residential rental, 2) residential condo, 3) hotel, 4) office and 5) miscellaneous (for everything not fitting into the first four buckets. Both pending and active development sites, as well as potential sites and possible assemblages are highlighted in different colors on The Map. The Map was originally created in the field in 2020 and, since then, BKREA has tracked every demolition permit, building permit and construction permit, and updated The Map accordingly. The massive 24-foot by 10-foot map details everything in Manhattan and is chock full of the most up to the minute data in the market. Today, The Map creates sensory overload for our visitors. The Map is color-coded with various colored highlights and post-its, marking everything from sold properties to available sites, and is categorized into the five main development buckets.
For all inquiries, reach out to your BKREA team member:
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