BKREA Releases a 41-Year Manhattan Land Index, Here’s What’s Inside

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BK Real Estate Advisors (BKREA) has released the Knakal Land Index, a comprehensive 41-year study of Manhattan land sales dating back to 1984. Designed to bring clarity to one of the world’s most supply-constrained markets, the Index provides a factual, data-driven baseline for how land pricing has behaved across multiple economic cycles.

Key Takeaways from the Knakal Land Index

Four Decades of Prime Manhattan Land Sales – The Index spans 41 years of data and analyzes 2,444 land transactions in Manhattan’s most competitive geography, where scarcity and density drive value.
Focus on Manhattan’s Highest-Stakes Corridor – Coverage includes land sales south of 96th Street on the East Side and south of 110th Street on the West Side, where redevelopment competition is most intense.
Five Property-Type Buckets for Precision – Transactions are segmented into residential rental, residential condo, office, hotel, and miscellaneous uses, avoiding misleading blended averages.
AI-Driven Macro Factor Analysis – Proprietary AI models compare land value movements against macroeconomic indicators to identify which factors are most predictive of future price direction and magnitude.
Consistent Methodology Since 1984 – The Index has been calculated using the same methodology for over four decades, enabling clean, apples-to-apples comparisons across market cycles.
Turning Hidden Buildings Into “Land” Opportunities – The research reflects how Manhattan land often emerges from older, underutilized buildings, highlighting redevelopment optionality that is not immediately visible.

Why Manhattan Land Is Different

Unlike most markets, Manhattan rarely creates land outright. Development opportunities typically come from demolishing or repositioning underbuilt assets, meaning land trades often appear disguised as building sales. This dynamic makes a long-term land dataset especially valuable—not just for developers, but for lenders, investors, and owners evaluating density and redevelopment potential.

Bob Knakal, Chairman and CEO of BKREA, notes that the firm operates in the “information and relationship business,” emphasizing that informed decisions consistently lead to better outcomes for clients.

Where the Findings Are Published

A curated summary of the Knakal Land Index appears in The Ultimate Guide to Selling a Development Site for the Highest Possible Price, a 340-page coffee-table book published by BKREA. The book includes:

A historical overview of Manhattan land sales
The Index’s core findings
200+ development site case studies sold by Knakal
Deal summaries, pricing, and client testimonials
Before-and-after visuals showing how NYC’s skyline has evolved
A summary of Knakal’s seven REBNY Most Ingenious Deal of the Year nominations, including two wins

Frequently Asked Questions

Q1: What is the Knakal Land Index?

‍ A proprietary 41-year study analyzing 2,444 Manhattan land sales using a consistent methodology dating back to 1984.

Q2: Why is this dataset unique?

‍ No other dataset combines four decades of identical methodology, prime geography focus, property-type segmentation, and AI-driven macro analysis.

Q3: Who benefits from the Index?

‍ Developers, investors, lenders, and property owners seeking clarity on land pricing behavior, redevelopment timing, and density-driven value.

Q4: How does AI factor into the analysis?

‍ AI models test which macroeconomic indicators most closely correlate with land value changes and help assess future pricing risk and opportunity.

Q5: Why segment land by property type?

‍ Land pricing behaves differently across uses. Segmentation avoids oversimplification and produces more actionable insights.

Q6: How does this research help BKREA clients?

‍ It provides a clearer factual baseline for decision-making, giving clients an informational edge in one of the most competitive land markets in the world.

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