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Robert Knakal’s latest Commercial Observer article examines the difference between dollar volume and transaction activity in Manhattan’s investment sales market. While 2026 is currently on pace to slightly exceed 2025 in dollar volume, the number of properties changing hands remains below the market’s long-term average. The analysis shows that capital is returning and several major sectors are improving, but transaction velocity has not yet fully recovered.
Manhattan investment sales totaled $19.914 billion in 2025. Through the first half of 2026, volume reached $10.173 billion, putting the year on pace for approximately $20.346 billion. While this suggests positive momentum, dollar volume alone does not indicate how broadly active the market is.
BKREA recorded 693 Manhattan investment property sales in 2025. With 341 sales in the first half of 2026, the market is currently on pace for approximately 682 transactions. That would remain below the long-term annual average of approximately 704 properties sold from 1984 through 2025.
Office, retail, land, hotels and free-market multifamily are all experiencing improved conditions. Office investment and leasing activity have strengthened, condominium development is supporting the land market, hotels are benefiting from limited new supply, and free-market apartment buildings continue to benefit from strong rental fundamentals.
Rent-regulated apartment buildings continue to face significant pressure from constrained revenue growth and rising operating expenses. Knakal notes that values in this sector remain approximately 80 percent below their peak based on BKREA's observations, making it the primary exception to the broader improvement across Manhattan's commercial real estate sectors.
The comparison with 2020 highlights the progress made since the pandemic, when only 385 properties traded. Capital has returned, financing conditions have improved, and investor confidence has strengthened. However, the number of sellers entering the market remains below historically normal levels.
The article argues that the next stage of the recovery will depend not simply on larger transactions or additional capital, but on an increase in the number of properties changing hands. A sustained increase above the long-term transaction average would indicate a broader change in market activity.
The article provides a data-driven framework for understanding Manhattan investment sales beyond headline dollar volume. By comparing both dollars invested and the number of properties sold, it highlights an important distinction between how much money is moving and how much the market itself is moving.
“Dollar volume tells us how much money is moving; properties sold tell us how much the market is moving.”
What is Manhattan investment sales volume projected to reach in 2026?
Based on first-half activity, Manhattan is currently on pace for approximately $20.346 billion in investment sales volume.
How many properties is Manhattan projected to sell in 2026?
With 341 properties sold during the first half of 2026, the market is currently on pace for approximately 682 sales.
How does that compare with the historical average?
Approximately 704 Manhattan investment properties sold annually on average from 1984 through 2025.
Which sectors are showing the strongest improvement?
The article identifies office, retail, land, hotels and free-market multifamily as areas showing positive momentum.
Which sector remains under pressure?
Rent-regulated multifamily remains the primary outlier, with constrained revenue growth and rising operating expenses creating continued economic pressure.
What would signal a new phase of the recovery?
A meaningful increase in the number of properties changing hands above the long-term average would indicate that transaction velocity has strengthened substantially.
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