Concrete

Thoughts


Concrete Thoughts is the name of a column I wrote for the Commercial Observer. In 2009, Jared Kushner purchased the New York Observer and created the Commercial Observer, dedicated entirely to commercial real estate. Having written commentaries and memos for my clients, including Jared, he appreciated my market insights and invited me to write for the new publication.

As one of the first columnists, I still write the column periodically. Here, you’ll find hundreds of articles I’ve written under the Concrete Thoughts column for the Commercial Observer. Enjoy exploring my perspectives on the market.

2024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009

2023

Do Manhattan's Latest Investment Sales Stats Herald a New Phase
November 14, 2023
How to Kill Jobs, Hurt Communities and Narrow NYC's Tax Base
October 10, 2023
NYC Owns a Greatly Underused Asset for Fixing Its Public Housing
June 13, 2023
The Best Time to Buy in Investment Sales When Others Are Afraid To
June 6, 2023
It Looks Like the NY Legislature Wants Higher Rents and More Homelessness
April 4, 2023
NY Policymakers Need to Focus on Incentivizing Office Conversions, Upgrades
March 7, 2023
How to Understand Manhattan’s Investment Sales Market for 2023
February 7, 2023
What's Really Happening With New York City Construction Costs
January 24, 2023

2022

Bye, 2022. Here's What to Expect in Investment Sales in 2023
December 13, 2022
The Rent Is Too Damn High in New York — Thanks to Politicians
November 15, 2022
There Are Great Opportunities in Manhattan’s Shaky Investment Sales Market
October 18, 2022
New York City’s Land Sales Market Is On Fire … For Now
September 20, 2022
Parsing New York's Investment Sales Market at Summer's End
August 9, 2022
May You Buy and Sell Manhattan Buildings in Interesting Times
July 19, 2022
Outer-Borough Investment Sales Volume Numbers Look Mixed, But...
May 17, 2022
Investment Sales in New York City Seem Poised for a Big Year
May 3, 2022
What New York Real Estate Investors Are Most Concerned About Now
April 19, 2022
How to Analyze New York Land Sales for a Modern Market
March 15, 2022
Fourth-Quarter Activity Rescues Manhattan Investment Sales in 2021
February 8, 2022
Why I Joined REBNY Way Back When — and Why You Should Join Now
January 25, 2022
Crime, Density and Tax Incentives Should Be Among Mayor Adams’ Top Priorities
January 11, 2022

2021

Manhattan’s Third Quarter Sales Prove the Recovery’s Not Quite There. Yet.
November 30, 2021
How to Maximize the Price When Selling a Portfolio
October 26, 2021
Why NYC’s Multifamily Market Is Proving Remarkably Resilient
October 5, 2021
Yes, Things Are Looking Up for New York City Investment Sales
August 10, 2021
Foreign Capital Continues to Flow Into New York City
July 13, 2021
Manhattan’s Q1 Investment Sales Disappoint, But Future Looking Up
May 4, 2021
I Want My, I Want My, I Want My 421a
April 13, 2021
How Much Can New York Squeeze Out of Someone?
March 23, 2021
During the Pandemic, They Are ‘Other Boroughs,’ Not ‘Outer Boroughs’
March 9, 2021
What the ‘User Premium’ Means for New York City Building Sales
February 23, 2021
Manhattan Investment Sales Volumes Appear To Be Climbing
February 9, 2021
What a New Administration in DC Means for Investment Sales in NYC
January 26, 2021
Why Affordable Housing Is the Key to NYC’s Economic Comeback
January 12, 2021

2020

Did You Really Expect Sales Volume to Increase
October 27, 2020
What I Did Over With My Summer Vacation
September 22, 2020
Product Type Performance Thus Far in 2020
July 28, 2020
Manhattan Investment Sales Slump in First Quarter
April 21, 2020
Market Disruptions: Past and Present
April 7, 2020
Supply and Demand Dynamics in Today’s Investment Sales Market
March 10, 2020
Is Now the Time to Buy Retail Assets?
February 18, 2020
Boutique C'est Chic
February 4, 2020
Could NYC Investment Sales Be Turning a Corner?
January 21, 2020
Why Has Business Slowed Down
January 14, 2020

2019

The Mystical Decoupling of Our Investment Sales Market
December 10, 2019
A Deeper Dive on Investment Sales Bright Spots
November 19, 2019
Bright Spots in the Investment Sales Market
November 11, 2019
Manhattan Apartment Building Sales Slump. Thanks, Regulation Reform!
October 29, 2019
Where, Oh Where, Have Investment Sales Go
October 15, 2019
The Law of Unintended Consequences
September 24, 2019
The NYC Investment Sales Market – Back to 2010 Levels – Ugh!
August 13, 2019
It’s the End of the World as We Know It
June 25, 2019
The Economy Could Keep Chugging Along for a Long Time
June 3, 2019
I-Sales Supply and Demand Dynamics, 2Q19
May 21, 2019
Job Growth: Rocket Fuel for CRE Fundamentals
April 23, 2019
Where Did Investment Sales Go in First Quarter 2019? 
April 16, 2019
Brooklyn Investment Sales Turning the Corner
April 2, 2019
Commercial Rent Control – a Bad Idea Then, and Now
March 26, 2019
Foreign Investment: Down, but Not Out!
March 19, 2019
Manhattan Investment Sales 2018 Market Recap 
March 12, 2019
Let's Not Be Hasty Getting Rid of MCI Program
January 29, 2019
My Annual REBNY Valentine
January 15, 2019

2018

Investment Sales Ticked Up In 2018 and Look Good in '19 
December 4, 2018
Buyers, Sellers See Different Multifamily Markets. Thank Goodness
November 13, 2018
November Surprises
October 30, 2018
Fundamentals Should Get A Boost from The Economy
September 25, 2018
The Worst Landlord In New York City Is…
June 20, 2018
Market Sectors Perform Differently
June 13, 2018
Outer-Borough Investment Sales Performance in 2018
May 9, 2018
As Expected, for Investment Sales, Manhattan Is Leading the Way
May 2, 2018
Investment Sales Market Moving in Expected Direction in 1Q18
April 18, 2018
Words to Live By
April 4, 2018
Motivating a Sales Force
March 28, 2018
Herzberg Knew How to Grow A Business
March 21, 2018
Why All the Interest in Interest Rates? 
March 7, 2018
History, Manhattan and Tax Policy Will Guide Us
February 7, 2018
Glad 2017 Is Behind Us. 2018 Will Hopefully Be Better.
January 31, 2018
I Heart REBNY. Here’s Why.
January 17, 2018
The Middle Dominates in Down Markets
January 10, 2018
Land Values Are Down, but Don’t Worry—Volume Will Pick Up
January 3, 2018

2017

Don’t Believe the Sales Market’s Dipped? Here Are the Numbers
December 6, 2017
Time for A Plan B for Taxes? 
November 30, 2017
Next for Investment Sales: Up, Down or Sideways?
November 15, 2017
Are Tax Cuts Good Apparently, It Depends on Who Proposes Them...
November 1, 2017
City Council Wants to End As-Of-Right Zoning? Yikes!!!!
October 25, 2017
A Glimmer of Light
October 18, 2017
De Blasio’s Math on Affordable Housing Doesn’t Add Up
October 11, 2017
Office Building Sales Volumes Down, Values Holding Firm
September 27, 2017
Multifamily Strong (Kinda)
September 20, 2017
Midtown East Rezoning Pro and Con
August 2, 2017
Investment Sales Report Card... Are You Sitting Down
July 26, 2017
Rent Regulation: More Insane Than Ever!
July 19, 2017
Nine Things to Keep an Eye on Midyear
June 28, 2017
Supply and Demand in Today's Investment Sales Market
June 14, 2017
Land Ho! The Counterintuitive Rally in the Land Market
May 24, 2017
Brooklyn Returns to Earth, but Still Has Room to Grow
May 3, 2017
The Golden Age of Commercial Brokerage
April 26, 2017
What Time Is It? (We Mean Now)
March 22, 2017
Tax Reform Could Mean Big Things for Sales 
March 8, 2017
You Are About to Enter the Twilight Zoning
March 1, 2017
REBNY, I Love You! 
February 22, 2017
The Multifamily Sector Continues to Rise
February 15, 2017
In 2016, Sales in the Outer Boroughs Stayed Strong
February 8, 2017
The 2016 Numbers Aren’t What You Think
February 1, 2017
The Performance of the Manhattan Land Market in 2016
January 25, 2017
The 2017 Reading List for Real Estate Pros
January 18, 2017
Investment Sales in 2016 and the Outlook for 2017
January 11, 2017

2016

Volume Slows but Values Rise in Manhattan
December 7, 2016
Will a 421a Deal Save the Land Market?
November 16, 2016
Multifamily Continues to Thrive as Market Faces Demand
November 9, 2016
Brooklyn Is Not Immune to the Cycle
October 26, 2016
Volume Slowdown? Who Cares!
October 19, 2016
Queens Is Riding High, Thanks to One Subset
October 5, 2016
Office Buildings Sales Are Down but Relatively Strong
September 28, 2016
Investment Sales Market Update (Things Aren’t Great)
September 21, 2016
A Look at Our Report Card (It’s Weird)
August 3, 2016
Now What?
June 29, 2016
Does Multifamily Shed Light on Broader Sales Market?
June 22, 2016
Employment Data Adds to the Confusion
June 15, 2016
What Is Your Time Worth? Each Minute?
June 8, 2016
Can Retail Keep Up?
May 25, 2016
Run, Paul, Run!
May 18, 2016
I Will Never Retire
May 4, 2016
Office Buildings Continue on Their Roll…
April 27, 2016
Manhattan: The Leading Indicator for the Sales Market?
April 20, 2016
They May Not Be Making More of It, But…
April 13, 2016
The Top 9 Reasons Why Owners Are Selling Today
March 23, 2016
Multifamily Headwinds Explained
March 9, 2016
Multifamily Sector Keeps on Rolling
March 2, 2016
Supply and Demand in the Current Investment Sales Market
February 24, 2016
FIRPTA Changes Could Be Great for Investment Sales
February 3, 2016
Why We Should Grieve for 421a
January 27, 2016
2015 Submarket Breakdown
January 20, 2016
2015 Investment Sales Set New Records
January 13, 2016
Focus on the Fundamentals for the Window into 2016
January 6, 2016

2015

The Biggest Concern for the Commercial Real Estate Market Is...
December 12, 2015
Is the Investment Sales Market Ready to Turn?
November 11, 2015
Sweet and Slowdown
October 7, 2015
Rent Regulations Revisited
August 5, 2015
How About a New Bonus Program in the Hudson Yards?
July 29, 2015
Investment Sales Still Rolling...
July 22, 2015
Global Crush
June 24, 2015
Four Buying Opportunities
June 17, 2015
Your Hard-Earned Tax Dollars at Work
June 10, 2015
Net(work) Worth
June 3, 2015
When the Rules of the Game Aren't the Rules of the Game
May 13, 2015
Has the Manhattan Submarket Peaked? Not Even Close!
April 22, 2015
For NYC's Investment Sales Market the Beat Goes on
April 15, 2015
How Real Is That Buyer Bidding on Your Property?
April 8, 2015
How'm I Doin, Buyers?
April 1, 2015
Just Say No to Unsolicited Offers
March 25, 2015
A Deeper Dive Into Interest Rates
March 18, 2015
Interest Rates and Why They Matter
March 11, 2015
The Biggest Problem With the US Economy Today Is
February 25, 2015
Stirrings in the Multifamily Market
February 18, 2015
Point of Origination
February 11, 2015
The Strongest Investment Sales Market in 31 Years
February 4, 2015
How Record High Demand is Driving New York Real Estate
January 21, 2015

2014

Threats to the Investment Sales Market
December 12, 2014
Did the Door Just Open to Reforming Rent Control?
December 3, 2014
Bizarro Brokerages: Businesses can teach us something
November 19, 2014
Multifamily Market Hitting New Record Highs
November 12, 2014
NYC's Investment Sales Market Through Three Quarters
October 8, 2014
Will 2015 Be More Like 2008 or 1998?
September 24, 2014
Foreign Capital and the EB-5 Program
September 10, 2014
Checking in Before the Dog Days
July 30, 2014
The Land Rush Continues in 2014
July 16, 2014
The Rent Guidelines Board's Recent Debacle
July 9, 2014
Politics and Commercial Real Estate
June 18, 2014
The Magnificent Seven
June 4, 2014
The Outer Boroughs are White Hot
May 14, 2014
Manhattan Investment Sales Market surges in First Quarter
May 7, 2014
Retail Property Sales
April 2, 2014
The Manhattan Office Building Market
March 11, 2014
Traits of a Top Broker
March 4, 2014
Education is Key to New York's Future
February 25, 2014
The 2013 NYC Multifamily Market: Elevator Going Down?
February 18, 2014
The Couch Potato Society
February 11, 2014
Outer-Borough Sales Markets Shine in 2013
February 4, 2014
Manhattan in 2013: Values Soared as Volumes Struggled
January 28, 2014
2013 Investment Sales Results
January 21, 2014
Why Investment Sales Will Set Records in 2014
January 14, 2014

2013

Three Strikes
December 26, 2013
Selling a Development Site
December 17, 2013
The Future of Multifamily Dynamics
November 26, 2013
A Wake Up Call for Nonregulated Residential Tenants
November 19, 2013
The Midtown East Rezoning Dilemma
November 12, 2013
Slow Growth May Be Here to Stay
November 5, 2013
3Q13 Investment Sales Continue Recovery
October 22, 2013
The Renewed Art of Networking
October 15, 2013
The Debt Ceiling and the U.S. Budget
October 1, 2013
An Update on the Battle Between Fear and Greed
September 24, 2013
Mayoral Election Is Now on the Horizon
September 17, 2013
The August Jobs Report
September 10, 2013
To Buy or Not to Buy-That is the Question!
September 3, 2013
Property Sales Volumes Down Values Continue Soaring
July 23, 2013
The June Jobs Report
July 9, 2013
If You Are Selling Retain an Exclusive Agent
July 9, 2013
Frustrated Buyers Can Smile
June 25, 2013
New York State of Mind
June 18, 2013
Politics and Commercial Real Estate
June 14, 2013
New York's Multifamily Sector Is on Fire
June 11, 2013
ICSC on the Mind
May 21, 2013
A Market Peak? A Bubble?
May 14, 2013
Markets Rally on Last Week's Jobs Report
May 7, 2013
Manhattan Saves the Day
April 30, 2013
The U.S. Economy and a Sensible Fiscal Policy
April 28, 2013
2013 Investment Property Sales Well Below 2012 Levels
April 23, 2013
Every Day Interest Rates Stay Low Is a Good Day
April 16, 2013
Another Disappointing Jobs Report
April 9, 2013
New York Tax Capital of the Nation
April 2, 2013
The British Are Coming
March 19, 2013
Where Are We Headed?
March 12, 2013
Sequester This
March 5, 2013
Rethinking Rent Regulation
February 19, 2013
Brooklyn Fire
February 12, 2013
Ed Koch: Master of Real Estate
February 5, 2013
Land: They Aren't Making Any More of It
February 2, 2013
Building Sales Bonanza
January 29, 2013
It's the Fundamentals Stupid!
January 22, 2013
To REBNY With Love
January 15, 2013
Solid Predictions
January 8, 2013

2012

I've Got Your Package Right Here
December 18, 2012
Flurry of Activity Forecasted Across New York
December 11, 2012
Location, Location, Location, LOCATION!
December 4, 2012
For Those About to Rock...
November 27, 2012
Investors Love NYC Apartment Buildings
November 13, 2012
Do Twinkies Have an Expiration Date?
November 11, 2012
Meltdown in Midtown
November 6, 2012
Lies, Damn Lies and Statistics
October 23, 2012
21a Benefits For Dummies
October 16, 2012
The Case for Networking
October 9, 2012
The Commercial Real Estate Brokers Ten Commandments
October 2, 2012
4Q12 Investment Sales Activity Will Be Epic
September 25, 2012
Commercial Real Estate Taxes Keep Rising While...
September 18, 2012
Sales Brokers: Get Ready for a Wild Ride
September 4, 2012
What Does Chick-fil-A Have to Do With Real Estate Activity?
August 7, 2012
Buyers Rejoice
July 24, 2012
The Paradox of Diamonds and Water
June 19, 2012
Back to the Boom
June 10, 2012
The Winter of Our Discontent
June 5, 2012
Bring Sin City to Governor's Island
May 29, 2012
Big Apple Retail
May 22, 2012
When Politics Economics and Real Estate Meet
May 1, 2012
Down, Down, Down
April 24, 2012
More Density for Midtown Manhattan
April 17, 2012
The March Jobs Report
April 10, 2012
Thank Heaven for Little Rates
April 3, 2012
Harmon's Law
March 27, 2012
Q: Will the Supreme Court Hear the Harmon Case?
March 20, 2012
Does the Governor Want to Be President One Day?
March 13, 2012
If you think the distressed asset cycle is over, think again
March 8, 2012
Fingerprinting and Real Estate Taxes...
February 28, 2012
Multi-Family Properties Reign Supreme
February 21, 2012
Land Slide
February 14, 2012
The Troubling Trend Behind Multifamily Investment Woes
February 7, 2012
The Manhattan Review
January 31, 2012
Reading Between the Lines
January 24, 2012
A Love Letter to REBNY
January 17, 2012
Dollars and Good Sense
January 10, 2012
Capital Gains Taxes The Market's Biggest Concern
January 1, 2012
Capital Gains Taxes The-Market's Biggest Concern
January 1, 2012

2011

The 2011 Holiday Wish List
December 20, 2011
As the U.S. Economy Goes , So Goes Retail
December 6, 2011
Market Moving Myths
November 29, 2011
The Real Estate Tax Capital of the U.S.
November 22, 2011
Living Wage Legislation
November 15, 2011
Outer Borough Investment Sales Activity Mixed
November 8, 2011
Bright Lights, Big City
November 1, 2011
Third Down
October 25, 2011
Jobs, Jobs, Jobs
October 18, 2011
Supply and Demand
October 11, 2011
NYC's Multi-family Market, Submarket by Submarket
October 4, 2011
Dollar Volume Is Up for Apartment Buildings
September 27, 2011
The Real Key to Economic Stimulation
September 20, 2011
What Works for Putting People Back to Work
September 13, 2011
Breaking It Down by Borough
July 26, 2011
What's Driving Investment Sales And Holding Them Up
July 19, 2011
The Good the Bad and the Endlessly Ugly of Rent Regs
July 12, 2011
Lessons Learned and Earned, Part III
June 14, 2011
Lessons Learned and Earned, Part II
June 7, 2011
Lessons Learned and Earned
May 31, 2011
Multifamily by Submarket
May 24, 2011
Lets Hear It for the State Senate Housing Committee
May 17, 2011
Watch Manhattan Pull the City Out of Recession
April 26, 2011
The Investment Sales Market Going Forward
April 19, 2011
A Lesson on the Need for 421-a
April 12, 2011
The Job Numbers and Commercial Real Estate
April 5, 2011
Budget Deals Good News for the Industry
March 29, 2011
20/20 on Site Sales
March 15, 2011
A Call for Means Testing in Rent Regulation
March 8, 2011
Wal-Mart and the Lesson of Betamax
March 1, 2011
Multifamily, Up From the Rocky Bottom
February 22, 2011
The Madness of City Property Taxes
February 15, 2011
Manhattan Investment Sales and the Lessons of the Two V's
February 8, 2011
The Battle Between Fear and Greed
February 1, 2011
What Just Happened What Lies Ahead
January 25, 2011
What REBNY Did for Me and My Firm
January 18, 2011
Checking His List
January 10, 2011
The Threats to the Market in 2011
January 4, 2011

2010

Checking His List
December 21, 2010
Connecting the Dots on Retail Mixed Use Investment Sales
December 7, 2010
The Tax Deal and Commercial Real Estate
November 14, 2010
What to Make of Investment Sales
October 26, 2010
Further Forecasting for Investment Sales
October 19, 2010
Take Note Distressed Asset Waves Swell
October 5, 2010
The Fuzzy Unemployment Picture and Commercial Real Estate
August 24, 2010
What's Building With Development Sites
August 10, 2010
Outer Borough Investment Sales at Midyear
August 3, 2010
Manhattan Investment Sales at Midyear
July 27, 2010
Investment Sales at Midyear
July 20, 2010
LeBron's Real Reason
July 13, 2010
Investment Sales' Uncharted Territory
July 6, 2010
The Investment Sales Mini Bubble
June 22, 2010
Nailing the Albany Amoeba to the Wall
June 15, 2010
Margin of Error
June 8, 2010
The Surprising New Hot Neighborhoods
June 1, 2010
The Details of Investment Sales Going Forward
May 25, 2010
Gauging Prevailing Wage
May 18, 2010
Spring Thaw
May 11, 2010
What I Told the Rent Guidelines Board
May 4, 2010
The Straw That Stirs the Market
April 27, 2010
After the Bottom
April 20, 2010
Congrats, Kingsbridge Armory Opponents
April 13, 2010
State of Pay
April 6, 2010
Multifamily Yesterday and Today
March 30, 2010
Albany in Reruns
March 23, 2010
Water and Diamonds and...
March 16, 2010
Rent-Reg Racket Reaches Fever Pitch
March 9, 2010
Do Not Read This Column During Business Hours
March 2, 2010
So You Don't Like the Wall Street Bonuses...
February 23, 2010
The Boroughs and Building Sales
February 16, 2010
Manhattan's Building Sales Market in 2009
February 9, 2010
How Bad 2009 Was for Building Sales
February 2, 2010
So You Want to Be a Commercial Real Estate Broker...
January 26, 2010
A Thank You Note
January 19, 2010
That Distressed Assests Wave
January 12, 2010
The Battle for the Future of Investment Sales
January 5, 2010

2009

A Holiday Wish List
December 22, 2009
How to Fix Rent Regulation
December 15, 2009
What's Next
December 8, 2009
How to Hurt New York's Commercial Property Stock
November 24, 2009
State Shouldn't Make a Whole New Ball Game of Mitchell Llama
November 17, 2009
Reasoning with the Taxman
November 10, 2009
Mr. Obama Tear Down This Tax Wall
October 27, 2009
Slapping Sense Into the Taxman
October 13, 2009
The Value of a Building These Days
October 6, 2009
Landlord Myths
September 29, 2009
Inflation Valuation
September 22, 2009
A Rolling Loan Gathers No Moss
September 15, 2009

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